Saturday, July 30, 2016

Things break down - Part 1

My posts this year have been becoming increasingly unfocused, and the reason for this is that the sheer number of events that are occurring around the world - all connected - is also increasing. It comes down to time as each post as is takes me hours to compile, write, and connect the dots and even still I leave information out as to include it would mean more hours on top of those. I do have a life outside of this blog and the lengthy posts are taking a toll. Information quality has gone down, and the length of my posts I find tends to scare off readers. Historically it's been my shorter posts that do well while my longer posts don't, for understandable reasons.

I was originally going to write a post tonight about the U.S. election, even though I promised myself I wouldn't write one much earlier in the year. I promised myself I wouldn't write one because frankly my forecasts for this U.S. election are so disturbing that I'd honestly hoped they weren't true. I didn't want to put it out there as just it's very existence may have created the situation I feared may happen which considering the whole point of writing my forecasts is to avoid these events, it seemed counter-productive. Sadly many of my internal forecasts seem to be coming true anyway and so the harm factor in writing these forecasts has greatly diminished. We will get to what these forecasts are.

In my research phase for this post I came across an interesting, and very indirectly related article, which has caused me to rethink my approach. In my day job as a programmer we refer to this as "scope creep", and as I mentioned earlier is the reason largely my posts have become so unfocused. The number of links I post to Twitter has increased ten-fold, and what's worse the links I post are simply a fraction of the links I am finding to be of importance to the trends at play. As the number of events have increased I've had to become increasingly selective of the criteria that signifies a significant event (the links I tweet all have some significance to the grand story I've been trying to tell, they often indicate turning points or confirm trends I've written about in the past) meaning that links I would have posted in the past no longer meet the minimum criterion I use to determine what is a significant event.

That all said, I feel that I've been sitting on a lot of important information that I really wish to share with my readers, I just haven't been able to figure out how. Until tonight.

We've covered a lot of ground over the years. From the root causes of much of the world issues: peak oil and infinite growth, to forecasts of the probable symptoms of these issues (Alberta's increasingly dire financial situation being a prime example), to descriptions of the steps the various states will take to mitigate these issues most of which involve an increasingly Orwellian surveillance and police state, to the current trend of the great deflation and the inevitable arrival of negative interest rates in "strong stable" Canada. Our next stop due to all of the above is going to be a period of time where things break down (and where there's no money to fix them).

This phase will likely be the phase in which the infinite growth monetary paradigm is exposed as ineffective, and counter-productive. Over the next few years I anticipate that the question of "what is solvency?" will take shape in various forms as the status-quo appears increasingly incompetent in face of mounting critical failures, and where "free market" (in reality rigged market) economics fails to transition us to anything other than procrastination.

However, these topics are all to be covered in later parts of this series, as the very first thing that's breaking down is the ability to simultaneously comprehend all of the problems we are facing, and design insulation to them that is not showered in cognitive dissonance. The more complex the situation becomes the harder it's going to be to see the big picture, and the harder it becomes to see the big picture the more likely it is that people are going to expend energy on supposed "solutions" that are doomed from the start due to simple oversight.

My realization tonight was that my inability to focus my posts coherently is in itself a symptom of things breaking down as complexity ramps up. So for this series each post is going to be small, and focused on a single specific topic. I hope it turns out better, and that you all enjoy it. Part 2 coming soon.

Click here to recommend this post on and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for CenturyLink

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.


  1. Have you considered focusing your thoughts into a book instead?

    I've found the lengthier posts you make (things like Key Concepts) to be incredibly thought-provoking. I would be interested to read a book that you've written.

    1. I have actually, but what I can't really focus on now is keeping up with the number of events. I feel as though we're well past the explanation of why phase. We're more moving into the it's happening right now phase where the timing of information is critical. Things are happening very quickly now.

      Aside from that I never figured there would be much interest in one if I did, though since you've expressed that interest...

  2. Richard, I think we are coming to realize that we have been overtaken by events. There are some who continue to deny these calamities exist. Among the others there are many who, until very recently, believed they were decades, even generations, off in the distance.

    Here, on Vancouver Island, we're living the summer that never was - hoping on any given day to break 20C while inside the Arctic Circle they've been recording 30+C records, first in Nunavut, then in Alaska and most recently in northern Siberia. It's not that I would trade for 30C weather. It's just that we're about 2,000 kms. south and wearing jackets.

    I expect you saw the devastating flash flood that swept the main street of Ellicott City, Maryland a few days ago. Yesterday it was Phoenix, Arizona that succumbed to flash flooding. Meanwhile drought, heatwaves and wildfires sweep through much of the rest of the American southwest.

    Earlier this week I looked into the increase in atmospheric water vapour loading. At a NOAA site I learned that for every 1C of warming, the water vapour loading rises by 7%. This deluge-era we've been experiencing this past decade stands to worsen markedly as atmospheric warming hits 2C in the near future. Yet almost nothing is being done to prepare our urban areas to withstand what's coming or even the change that has already set in. George Monbiot addresses this subject in his latest opinion piece in The Guardian. It's worth checking out.