Monday, June 9, 2014

CAPP cuts production forecasts as government promises bigger better oilsands

Canadian oil industry body cuts long-term production forecast
(Reuters) - The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers cut its 2030 Canadian oil production forecast on Monday, citing growing uncertainty over the timing of some oil sands projects due to rising costs and available capital.
In its annual forecast, the lobby group for the country's largest oil and gas companies said total Canadian oil production would rise to 6.4 million barrels per day in 2030, compared with 3.5 million barrels per day in 2013.

That forecast was about 300,000 bpd, or 5 percent, lower than the one made last year.

The divergence comes from expected production from projects in Alberta's oil sands, home to the world's third-largest crude reserves after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

"Some projects were delayed beyond the current forecast period as a result of individual company decisions related to cost competitiveness and capital availability," CAPP said in its report.
Canada Increasingly Dependent On Resources As Factories, Housing Slide
OTTAWA - The Conference Board's latest barometer of the economy shows Canada's short-term outlook is becoming ever more dependent on commodities.

The newest composite leading index for April rose by 0.4 per cent, twice the pace of March, but the composition shows the trigger for growth was almost exclusively on the commodity export side.

Higher resource prices contributed to an eighth consecutive month of growth in the Toronto stock market, with the Bank of Canada commodity price posting the biggest gain in three years at 2.4 per cent.
IEA Says the Party’s Over
A “what-me-worry?” price forecast. Despite all these dire developments, the IEA offers no change from its 2013 oil price forecast (that is, a gradual increase in world petroleum prices to $128 per barrel by 2035). The new report says the oil industry will need to increase its upstream investment over the forecast period by $2 trillion above the IEA’s previous investment forecast. From where is the oil industry supposed to derive that $2 trillion if not from significantly higher prices—higher over the short run, perhaps, than the IEA’s long-range 2035 forecast price of $128 per barrel, and ascending higher still? This price forecast is obviously unreliable, but that’s nothing new. The IEA has been issuing wildly inaccurate price forecasts for the past decade. In fact, if the massive increase in energy investment advised by the IEA is to occur, both electricity and oil are about to become significantly less affordable. For a global economy tightly tied to consumer behavior and markets, and one that is already stagnant or contracting, energy constraints mean one thing and one thing only: hard times.
Canadian Trends: The Deteriorating Canadian Condition
Canadian Trends: Oilsands proponents have yet to describe the infinite growth 'end game'
Canadian Trends: Peak Canada? No, it's still peak oil
Canadian Trends: Oilsands Prosperity is a Lie

It's a lie, or they're incompetent. If me, a simple programmer/blogger could see this coming years in advance then the supposed "experts" did too. They're lying to you, oil sands prosperity is a lie - a big fucking lie - always has been and it always will be and those who don't get it are going to find out the hard way. They're a fool's errand and we will be indebting our children, our children's children, and their children too in pursuit of the pot of gold at the end of bullshit rainbow.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for CenturyLink

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

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