Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Maybe one day...

Well now that the confidence in bad economic data is high it's time to tell everyone how we're really doing. Remember how growth was supposed to return in 2013, and then 2014, well now it's 2015. Expect there to be a new projection next year of 2016 after confidence is built up and projections slashed yet again.

Where will all of our illusionary growth in 2015 be coming from? Will it be coming from the U.S.?
The health of the U.S. economy has always been important for Canada’s economic wellbeing. But with Canada’s consumer tapped out and its governments tightening their belts, the elephant south of the border will have to do even more of the heavy lifting than usual to keep Canada’s economy on track, to adapt Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s observation to an economic context.

The stakes are high; a stronger U.S. economy could absorb more Canadian exports, helping lift the economy out of the morass of sub-par growth that’s characterized the last two years or so.
I wouldn't count on them whether you're using jobs as an indicator or the FED or oil price, and with the way their foreign debt holdings are going you can expect that the next time the "fiscal cliff" pops up in it's calculated fashion the results will again be worse which will pretty well ensure that Canada's future growth isn't going to be coming from the U.S.

How about Europe with the new CETA deal? Well that is certainly going to help the TFW farce and Europe is obviously quite happy about that.
The European Union is touting the fact a landmark trade deal with Canada will make it easier for EU companies to move staff here for short-term postings – a development that comes as the Canadian government tries to dissuade employers from importing temporary foreign workers.
So expect a lot more of this:
As hundreds of pipefitters and welders arrived at Husky Energy’s Sunrise project for their weeks-long shifts, a company spokesperson told the crew of approximately 270 this would be their last.

Their replacements?

An equal number of temporary foreign workers
brought in by Saipem, a non-union Italian company specializing in oil and gas construction projects.
But hey, don't say I didn't warn you all. Of course this is in addition to secret international courts overruling the people's governments in the name of trade as is standard with all "free trade" deals.

So how about China? Surely those emerging markets will be the source of Canada's growth?
China’s battle against a persistent air pollution crisis, which all but shut down a city of 11 million this week, is being hampered by tough weather conditions, an environmental official said on Tuesday.

Air quality in cities is of increasing concern to China’s stability-obsessed leaders, anxious to douse potential unrest as a more affluent urban population turns against a growth-at-all-costs economic model that has affected much of the country’s air, water and soil.
I'm looking forward to those "rate hikes" in 2015, aren't you? Maybe it's time Canada starts looking to Canada and Canadians for it's future prosperity instead of economic blocs that can't even manage their debt under a police state enforced austerity. Or maybe the federal government already knows prosperity isn't going to be happening and it's growth projections are bullshit and that central banks won't be able to keep printing money forever to keep the economy on life support. Maybe they already know future obligations are not going to be serviced and are preparing for a day when our "essential services" worker's pay will have to be furloughed as in the U.S. recently. Maybe next year we'll finally get some honesty about the non-recovery, peak oil, the real global consequences Fukushima, and the real prospects for "growth" - though I wouldn't count on it.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for CenturyLink

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

1 comment:

  1. There's a growing belief, supported with research, Richard that the days of conventional growth are not coming back. The theory goes that we're being propelled by circumstances we cannot overcome into, at best, a steady state economy or, at worst, an era of economic feudalism.

    Around the world, growth is running headlong into walls. Desertification, deforestation, collapse of global fisheries, the freshwater crisis. resource depletion. Some of this is visible to the naked eye from the ISS. It's all tangible, inescapable. We have resorted to the folly of neo-classical economics that believes you can grow an economy that is not restrained by environmental limitations. We're now reduced to eating our seed corn. When you become dependent on consuming resources at far higher rates than the biosphere can replenish them, you're burning the candle from both ends. There's ample history to show that never ends well.