Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Pinning hopes on donkeys

Oh, good. Finally. The Bank of Canada has now come out with what is obviously the completely correct excuse reason that they were completely wrong, of course keeping in mind that their wrong forecasts were previously corrected because they were wrong. The rosy projections of Q1 are now being re-projected into Q1, of next year. Obviously things are improving, otherwise why would they think that? These are top-men, I tell you. TOP MEN.

Bank of Canada pins hopes on new year
The central bank acknowledged Tuesday that the third-quarter number was “weak,” but attributed part of the slump to “transitory disruptions” in the energy industry. Policy makers held to their view that ultralow borrowing costs will stir enough household consumption and business investment in the months ahead to avoid a prolonged slump. The Bank of Canada in October predicted the economy would expand at a rate of 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter.
They're not even hiding it anymore! "transitory disruptions", you can't make this shit up folks. Oh, and what's the solution? "Policy makers held to their view that ultralow borrowing costs will stir enough household consumption and business investment in the months ahead to avoid a prolonged slump". TA DA!

Household consumption! Of course. Because, it's debt and "household consumption", and not our "vast resources" which provides all of our wealth and riches. So, folks, let me break this plan down for you because it really is an awesome and excellent plan. This is the sort of plan that some peasant like myself or you could never even dream of nor comprehend fully. Here it is:
  1. Spur more borrowing.
  2. Wait for energy prices to rebound and new markets to open up.
  3. Profit!!!!!!!
But despite the fact they are going to "spur more borrowing", the fear factor must remain alive and well.
The central bank’s response to the third-quarter growth figures suggests Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and his deputies on the governing council remain more inclined to raise interest rates than to lower them, although a change in stance is unlikely for some time.
So, get this. They want to spur more lending so that we avoid a "prolonged slump" (because we're obviously not already in it, right?) but are more inclined to raise interest rates, but that is "unlikely for some time". Brain spinning yet?

Let me simplify it for you: We're the Bank of Canada and we're full of shit.

The confidence game isn't going so well for the world powers right now, but that paragraph "sounds" good. Doesn't it? As I pointed out yesterday:
"Growth in the quarter was almost entirely driven by household consumption (+3.1 per cent)," Enenajor wrote in a note.
Their "plan" is already in action, and has been in action for some time. It really does have to get stranger though, doesn't it?

30% of Canadian businesses face a labour shortage: CIBC
Highest job vacancy rates in Alberta and Saskatchewan

A new report on Canada’s job market indicates 30 per cent of the country’s businesses face a skilled labour shortage, which is double the rate seen in early 2010.

And the issue is more acute in Alberta.

The report, released Monday by CIBC World Markets, also said Canada’s job market shows a growing divide between have and have not occupations.
So far as I can tell, here is Canada's economic strategy in a nutshell: Lets pump everything we have into a sector which most Canadians are not skilled for, isn't doing well nor providing much of a return, has a very uncertain future, and to support this commitment Canadians will just have to go more into debt which will surely be paid back by the jobs they don't have while contending with "Flaherty's Tights". Awesome; this is our "strong stable economy". What a joke.

2012 will be a cakewalk compared to 2013

I've chosen trend forecasting as my medium for putting my thoughts out there as it allows me to analyse events of all different kinds alongside data and to arrive at likely outcomes when certain factors converge. I find it's much more accurate than any sort of economic analysis done by the Bank of Canada, or anyone focused on one particular type of data or event. 2013 is going to be worse than 2012 for a few different reasons, many being financial, but also you can see the early signs of shutdowns beginning.
As cargo ships idled in the harbor or headed elsewhere, negotiators prepared Tuesday to return to the bargaining table with a federal mediator to try to end a costly, eight-day strike that has all but shut down the nation's busiest port complex.

About 44 percent of all cargo arriving in the U.S. by sea passes through the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, accounting for an estimated $1 billion a day in merchandise.

However, since hundreds of clerical workers went on strike, and thousands of dockworkers refused to cross their picket lines, most of that cargo has languished on docks, rail cars or ships.
Events are starting to get closer to home now and supply chain disruptions are becoming more and more likely. You might want to get emergency supplies now (while supplies last). At the very least, store water. Please - even if you never have to use it, you lose nothing but a little space and a few containers.


Our strong dollar says that despite the repeated "interest rate hike" talk, no hike is coming. The fact the bank used specific terminology: "transitory disruptions" makes me ponder if perhaps this transition is the one I have been expecting. I still believe that "transition" or a similar one would be required to raise rates without shocking Canada's remaining U.S. trade.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for CenturyLink

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

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