Monday, June 4, 2012

No-gasm: Global economic foreplay isn't working

Anyone with proper insight in to the global situation has known more Canadian stimulus would be here sooner or later. At the moment it would appear sooner is winning. Coincidentally I don't remember stimulus in the budget, in fact the whole budget was supposed to be about post-stimulus Canada. Jobs & Growth and all that jazz, remember? Amazing how much can change in a period of a few months when the goal of confidence is pursued.

All of the risks Canada is facing and Flaherty/Carney have been talking about now have been known far in advance, yet for the last 2 years all we have heard from these leaders is these risks don't apply to us, that we weathered the global economic storm, etc. It should be clear this was a lie, if it wasn't then they are completely incompetent at their jobs and their credibility should be completely shot. For me their credibility is shot, I know they know what's actually happening, and occasionally in their own cryptic way they actually do say the truth but beyond that it's all confidence and rumour pushing.

I'll put it simply here Canada, if we are put in a situation where stimulus is nessecary, that means the beginning of the end game is here for us. Why? Well, why would we need stimulus? Consider the trillions in global credit produced just in the last 4 years, and then consider the nature of our economy; it's export based.

Stimulus can only mean one thing now that we are in a supposed recovery, that we have lost a number of customer's to export to (due to their current economic state). Stimulus isn't a solution to this problem, this won't be resolved in a year and is just the start of a very long term problem. Stimulus might make up the shortfall, but unless Canada re-focuses on domestic production and consumption to fill in the gap we will need a lot of stimulus on an annual basis (good bye deficit cutting).

Of course there is an alternative which I believe may still be in the cards, which is to allow Canada's dollar to appreciate against the USD. It is the stimulus between us and the U.S. which would drive inflation. Decoupling from the USD would be as simple a matter as allowing interest rates to rise to normal levels.

Stimulus won't work, and people should really be questioning these supposed "experts" on their proposals. Trillions have been pumped in to the global economy and the return on investment (in terms of growth) has been dismal in comparison. All stimulus does is provide cheap money on the back of the future, it further devalues our currency, and of course those who use the currency first get the highest value from it and the value reduces with each subsequent use. By the time it gets to you it is worth much less than when it was handed to the banks.

With the $700 trillion derivatives bubble, all of the stimulus is really just the economic equivilent of throwing a hogdog down a hallway.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for CenturyLink

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

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